In this week’s issue of Perennial Gale, I explore how political uncertainty weighs on entrepreneurship, investment and innovation. Drawing on recent research and real-world examples – from the fallout of Brexit to the policy whiplash after Trump’s first term – I show how unpredictable policy environments can stall new business formation, shrink investor appetite and slow productivity growth. Even whispers of tax changes have recently prompted founders to rush exits ahead of possible reforms.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s evidence that some firms respond to uncertainty by doubling down on R&D, treating turbulence as a strategic window to out-innovate competitors. While uncertainty depresses aggregate activity, the entrepreneurial instinct to adapt and push forward remains a vital counterforce. As we await the next Budget and possible further shifts in policy, the question isn’t whether uncertainty will persist – it’s how the most ambitious firms will navigate through it.

In addition, we want to hear from entrepreneurs. We’re responding to a government consultation on e-invoicing, and we’re looking into accelerators and incubators. Get in touch with Eamonn or Anastasia respectively to feed your views in.