Peter Drucker once said that the only thing we know about the future is that it will be different. Far be it from me to correct the founder of modern management theory, but at least in the short term, we aren’t entirely clueless.
Although precise predictions are impossible, our experience can guide us toward likely outcomes, something that both entrepreneurs and policymakers need. While we don’t know what a second-term President Trump will look like, we have more knowledge than we did when he was elected for his first term. We know, for example, to take his words seriously despite claims back in 2016 that we should take them symbolically. That’s not to say he will – or can – do everything he wants. And we also know that he’s quick to change his mind. This underscores how uncertain the global policy landscape will be under Trump’s leadership – and why entrepreneurs and policymakers alike must stay agile.
As our Research Director Eamonn Ives argued last year following the election, the lesson for many European countries, including the UK, is that we’ve grown too accustomed to relying on external actors. Whether that’s the US for technological innovation and security, or Russia and China for cheap energy and goods – without adequately considering the vulnerabilities this creates. Rather than retreating into economic insularity, Eamonn makes the case for smarter policies that prioritise resilience and recognise the true foundations of growth. Whether that’s in policy areas where we can work more closely with our allies, or in areas where we need to build our own capabilities – like producing our own cheap, clean energy.
On this side of the pond, we now know a lot more about our new Labour Government. It’s fair to say that not everything has gone the way that Britain’s entrepreneurs would have wanted, but we – and Labour – should remember that there’s still four and a half years left before the next election needs to be held, which is ample time to turn things around.
That won’t happen on its own, however, and as the warning lights of the economy flash a darker shade of red, Starmer should be minded to look back to the record of the last man to break the Tories’ stranglehold on power. In his first term alone, Tony Blair managed to enact a host of reforms that materially changed the political fabric of Britain. Many of these he gripped early on in his premiership, meaning that the benefits had time to accrue by the time voters next went to the polls. Short-term news cycles have certainly changed how politics works, but they haven’t rendered long-term governance a thing of the past just yet – Labour can’t forget that they have the power to act. On this, Anastasia Bektimirova shares Blair’s insights on X, taken from his recent book On Leadership.
So what else should entrepreneurs be thinking about this year?
The elephant (not playing chess) in the room is artificial intelligence. The only challenge is predicting the timeline. However, this isn’t entirely a black box; there are people with proven insights. Rodney Brooks, for example, has been making predictions since 2018. While he hasn’t always been spot on forecasting the timeline for AI, robotics, self-driving cars and human space travel, his deep knowledge combined with his self-awareness makes his 2025 update a must-read.
He’s not the only one worth reading to get a better understanding of how AI will evolve in 2025. Read Herbie Bradley to understand what Trump could mean for AI. Read Simon Willison for a comprehensive update on LLMs and AI, with a few hints at likely directions for the future. And read Austin Vernon for a view on how AI agents may be integrated into companies (this one is a short, essential read for all entrepreneurs).
There’s room for disagreement. That is why AI sceptic Gary Marcus has made a bet with Miles Brundage, formerly of OpenAI, on whether AI will be able to pass ten tests – including writing Pulitzer-caliber books, coming up with Nobel-caliber scientific discoveries, writing cogent, persuasive legal briefs – by 2027.
In reality, the truth likely lies somewhere between these extremes. The Pulitzer test may miss a more immediate shift. AI is already reshaping how influential thinkers approach their work. Economist Tyler Cowen says he is now writing primarily for AI as a target audience. So is researcher Gwern Branwen. (For my part, I’m still writing for humans.) What we can be sure of is that reality will be transformational for everyone reading this.
It’s time
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