Entrepreneurs are used to working weekends, while Members of Parliament haven't had to officially work on a Saturday since the Falklands War. Tomorrow they vote on the Prime Minister's Brexit deal. It's too close to call.
While the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will vote against the deal, a few of the Tories in exile, some self-styled ‘Spartans’ from the European Research Group (ERG) and quite a few Labour MPs will vote with the Government.
However, whatever happens tomorrow, Sir Oliver Letwin MP and others could force Boris to ask the EU for an extension. Their stated concern is that a vote in favour on Saturday would cancel the Benn Act, leaving the door open for a no-deal if Boris pulled back from the deal.
But perhaps the biggest shift in recent days is the split among anti-no dealers. While many have their heart set on remaining come what May (or Johnson), there's a growing #bobptd movement – #bobptd stands for 'Bored Of Brexit, Pass The Deal'. (Of course, while passing the deal would eventually take Brexit off our front pages, the new deadline of December 2020 isn't far off. Whatever happens, this is just the beginning – or the end of the beginning.)
The think tank Open Europe has a useful explainer on the new deal. In essence, the backstop has been replaced with a ‘frontstop’ special arrangement for Northern Ireland which will come into force immediately after the end of the transition period. The UK will have to enforce EU Customs procedures at points of entry into Northern Ireland, which will impact exporters into and importers in Northern Ireland. Businesses will continue to enjoy unfettered access to the market in Great Britain, but the region will also follow the EU’s regulatory framework in certain respects.
More Erg
Whatever happens tomorrow, a hard Brexit remains possible. Some RRG types are supporting it precisely because of the possibility of a no deal come December 2020. Giles Wilkes, former adviser to Theresa May and Vince Cable has written a paper for the Institute for Government on the potential for a bailout for business in a no-deal Brexit. Wilkes sensibly calls for the Government to develop clear principles now to reflect the purpose and constraints of business support.
Sham Pain
A think tank's work is never done. As you'll see below, we're putting on a couple of events on immigration and visas. It's not just for the champagne and slap-up breakfast, we're busy scoping out a new paper on fixing the failing Start-Up and Innovator visas. If you're an entrepreneur or expert with experience or knowledge of these visas, drop me an email so I can ensure you're consulted.
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